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The IMF expects 1% growth this year against Treasury's 1.6%, and next Wednesday's mini-budget will show how much of the tax take still rests on gold and platinum prices.
Meanwhile, US debt is heading into unprecedented territory, one of the key reasons behind a surge in long-term borrowing costs that has raised alarm bells globally.
The IMF credits the AI building boom with keeping global growth above 3%, and Tencent's latest bond sale shows what that boom looks like inside one company.
After starting the year with a much more positive outlook for the economy, the IMF says the picture for South Africa has dimmed significantly since then.
Businesses 'have continued to adjust to repeated shocks' while markets — buoyed by an exuberant tech industry — have taken a 'broadly benign view of the challenges,' the IMF said.